Motive Signal™ methodology

Motive Signal is a proprietary 0–100 confidence score that ranks how strongly multiple factors agree right now. It powers Opportunity Radar and the Daily Brief by answering: “Given the feeds we have, how strong is the confluence?” — so you research high-alignment ideas first.

It is not a buy/sell rating, price target, probability of profit, or personalized investment or betting advice. Past patterns are not forecasts of future results.

1. Ingest — Normalize live and archived inputs (prices, volume, flow proxies, odds/line context, prediction-market prices, filings when available) with timestamps and source tags.
2. Detect — Flag anomalies such as relative volume spikes, unusual options-style activity (demo-labeled when simulated), whale/volume proxies, line moves, and narrative shifts.
3. Score — Weight module-specific factors into a composite 0–100 Motive Signal with a plain-English Why It Matters summary (LLM layer when OpenAI is configured).
4. Prioritize — Surfaces in Opportunity Radar and the Daily Brief so operators triage research — not execute trades or place bets inside MotiveFX.

Factor detail expands by plan (Decision History and advanced analytics on Ultra+). See pricing and data sources for what is live vs demo.

• Scores depend on available feeds; demo modules use sample data and must not be treated as live tape.
• LLM explanations can err; always verify critical facts against primary sources.
• High scores can coincide with crowded or late moves — confluence ≠ edge.
• Sports and prediction modules are analytics-only; geo and age restrictions may apply.

Status: preliminary / limited sample. We do not publish fabricated win rates or “guaranteed” accuracy. A formal backtest and live forward-test framework is in progress.

How we will measure (and what you should expect in early releases):

• Definition — For equities, a scored event is a “hit” if the directional bias of the Why It Matters summary aligns with forward return over a pre-declared horizon (e.g. 1–5 sessions), after excluding demo-only samples.
• Coverage — Early track record will cover live-feed modules only (Finnhub / crypto / odds / Polymarket where keyed), with sample size and date range disclosed.
• Disclosure — Until N is large enough for statistical confidence, we label results preliminary and avoid headline percentages on marketing pages.
• What exists today — Decision History (Ultra+) is the product surface for journaling outcomes; public aggregate hit-rate tables will ship here when methodology lock + sample size allow.

If you need the current sample status for diligence, email support@motivefx.ai with subject “Motive Signal track record.”

MotiveFX.AI provides market intelligence software. We do not execute trades, accept wagers, custody funds, or act as a broker, adviser, or sportsbook. Read our Terms and Privacy Policy.